Sponsored by the National Center
for Financial Research (NCFR) at Peking University, the
second International Financial Forum was
held on October 16, 2015 at Guanghua School of Management, Peking University. To
encourage guests to speak freely and fully express their insights, the forum was
designed as a closed-door meeting on the theme of "The Road of
Global Investment for Chinese Capital".
With slowing down economy, Chinese economy has entered into a new norm. New
situations and problems start to appear. In the current context of the
continuing turmoil in the financial market, it is just in time for scholars,
practitioners and policy makers to make collective efforts to find the optimal
solutions for important issues established and initiated by China, such as AIIB, "one belt and one
road", investment risk and prospects. The forum themed on global
investment, strategic investment and asset allocation is a positive response to
the above major issues. The event was hosted by Professor Jin Li, Director of the
National Center for Financial Research and Associate Dean of Guanghua School of
Management, Peking University. Wei Liu, Deputy Vice President of Peking
University made a warm opening speech.
The subsequent keynote
speeches highlighted the whole event. Honorary Dean of Guanghua School of management,
Professor Li Yining spoke about the institutional reason behind small and micro
enterprise financing problem. He indicated that at present, the small and micro
enterprises in China are facing two types of discriminations: one is the
ownership discrimination, another is scale discrimination. The main reason is that
many people do not see the vitality of small firms, and do not take into
account the future capital investment benefits. Nowadays, China's employment
problem is not the same as that of the 90's. Today, China has no workers,
because the supply of migrant workers is less and less, so it is vital to
develop small and micro enterprises. The financing of small and micro
enterprises needs to have reforms, such as supporting private banks and turning
underground finance into the ground. At the end of his speech, Professor Li
spoke with confidence that financing and developing of small and micro
enterprises will greatly benefit employment problems, agriculture development
and small townships construction.
Keping
Li, President and CIO of China Investment Corporation (CIC) first praised
that in the context of international economic development strategy, the subject
of this discussion is particularly meaningful. China's sovereign wealth fund,
with a relatively loose definition, includes three forum participated institutions,
namely, State
Administration of Foreign Exchange responsible for the management of
foreign exchange reserves, social security funds and China Investment
Corporation. The strength of China's sovereign wealth fund not only comes from
the size of the fund, but also China’s economic background and expansion potential.
However, the challenge is how to achieve this potential and optimize the advantages.
Facing investees fast-growing demands of growing together with China, how to
make it a reasonable economic reality? Another trend is that world's sovereign
wealth funds and large international investment companies allocate asset from
traditionally focusing on open market, to more and more focus on alternative
assets. Large international institutional investors are strengthening and enhancing
their internal management capabilities. Compared with them, we have limitations
in management, which is also a major challenge to China's sovereign types of
funds. We need to improve and create some conditions, pay more attention to the
needs of growing with Chinese economy and search for new value-added benefits.
Then, Zhongmin Wang, Vice Chairman of
China National Council for Social
Security Fund made the speech. He first of all paid tribute to Prof. Li
Yining for guidance and help in his academic career. Mr. Wang mentioned that the
national social security fund is the reserve fund, and its main battlefield is
for RMB settlement, and ultimate benefit return is also China's old-age group. The
fund has encountered some obstacles and challenges in communication with supervision
departments and the process of foreign investment practice. He indicated that, comparing
with other participated institutions, the social security fund has the most difficult
way to invest globally. As conclusion, Mr. Wang Zhongmin expressed innovative
and personal interpretations of common misconceptions about financial economy,
alternative assets and hedge funds.
Guoqiang Long, Deupty Director of
Development Research Center of the Chinese State Council shared his insights on "one
belt one road" prospects and opportunities. He stated that both domestic and international
communities have warm responses toward “one belt one road” initiative. It is a
good start. Accurately speaking, "one belt one road” is regional
cooperation initiatives, and
has the following features: 1. Larger than TPP, TTIP, RCEP, FTA, etc., is the
largest regional cooperation initiative; 2. different from other free trade
zone, it is open and inclusive; 3. is South-South Cooperation, China hopes to
promote the development of regional economy through new financial arrangements;
4. very rich substance, not a simple external strategy. "One belt one road”
initiative contains a lot of investment opportunities. It is a foreign transfer
of labor intensive industries. From strategic point of view, it also has huge
investment potential for Chinese companies. Of course, this area has some
unique risks, such as political risk, complicated background of culture,
religion and law, and immature economic market and government corruption. In his
final report, Mr. Long called on people to seize this opportunity, draw on the
advantages and avoid disadvantages.
The final part
of the keynote speech featured Stanford University Professor, Nobel Laureate Myron Scholes’s sharing of his recent
research. Professor Scholes hoped to give investors some advice:not to pay too
much attention on relative return on investment, but to consider the absolute
return; Composite return needs to get more attentions, while the tail risk is
also very important. Considering complex investment needs from long-term
perspective, earning money is because the extra return would not limit the
other returns.
The first
session of forum, titled “Opportunities and Challenges for China's global Investment” was
hosted by Li Liu,
Professor of Department of Finance, Guanghua School of Management PKU. Quest
speakers were Yiping Huang, Associate Dean of National School of Development
PKU and member of Monetary Policy Committee of People's Bank of China, Shan Li, chairman
of Silk Road Finance Corporation and Peijun Duan, Professor and Chairman of Department of Strategies,
Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C
Professor
Huang Yiping stated that from a strategic point of view, the "one belt one
road" strategy has significant meaning to our next step in economic
development. It creates space for Chinese economy to leap from Chinese model to
Japanese model, brings us new competitiveness. However, there are many
uncertainties, and many questions remain to be answered. Mr. Li Shan commented
that the "one belt one road" is a very important strategic plan, both
diplomatically and domestically. It is necessary to engage in a think tank,
specialized in relevant research. The establishment of the "Silk Road
Planning Research Center" was for this purpose. To implement research
results, Silk Road Finance Company was established on October 10th. On “one
belt one road” financial development, Li advocated the joint efforts from government
support, including government resources, market resources, talent market and international
talents, and combining advantages of state-owned institutions and market forces,
to create new glories on the silk road. Professor Duan Peijun explored the
relationship between "one belt one road" and the existing national
strategy. The "double engines" is our domestic economic development
strategy, while "one belt one road" focuses on external, including
free trade zone, and is the strategic extension of “double engines”. They
complement each other in one strategic structure. Prof. Duan also talked about risks
in strategy, investment, and security emerged with “one belt one road”
initiative.
The second session was carried out around “New perspectives on
global strategic investment”, hosted by Yu-Jane Liu, Chair of Department of Finance, Guanghua School of
Management PKU. Quest speakers include Hongyan Li, Chief Operating Officer, Investment
Center of State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Yuyin
Zhan, Chief Investment Officer, National Council for Social Security Fund, Yiqing
Zhang, Managing Director of Public Equity Investment Department, China
Investment Corporation, and Myron Scholes.
Ms. Li Hongyan introduced innovative applications of
foreign exchange reserves and problems existing in the process. Zhan Yuyin
cited from the operational level the internal and external challenges faced by
social security fund, including the impact of the new economic model and strengthened
supervision. Zhang Yiqing pointed that while “one belt one road” is to expand development
space, another dimension is directed by technological progress. New technology
may bring us strategic impact and changes. Prof. Scholes claimed that big data
may have huge impact on financial sector. Financial sector has been fairly
static, but financial institutions are constantly changing. To reduce
information asymmetry, we need more rapid, personalized and customized financial
service. For example, there is a new way of keeping accounts. In the future, we
will see horizontally flow of ledger account. And that must rely on big data.
Professor Scholes reminded us that the original vertical thinking has to be transformed
into horizontal thinking. Mr. Zhan Yuyin added that information technology
develops much faster than we can imagine. The transmission, speed and coverage
are completely different from the past. We need to consider how that changes investment
and our work. The overflow of information itself may not so valuable, but
transmission and decision-making mechanisms behind it should cause everyone's
attention.
The last Session was elaborated on “Asset
allocation at rapidly changing global economy”. Min Song, Chair of Department of Finance, School of
Economics, PKU served as MC, and invited speakers include Edwin Cass, CIO of Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Leslie Teo Eng Sipp,
Chief Economist and Head of Investment Strategy, Singapore Governmental
Investment Corporation, and Yuan Zhou, CSO of China Investment
Corporation.
Cass Edwid
introduced the asset allocation mechanism in Canada Pension Plan Investment
Board. Teo Eng Sipp Leslie reviewed the historical development
of Singapore Governmental Investment Corporation. He
specifically called attention on current issues such as low interest rate
environment, demographic characteristics, population changes, technology impact,
valuable asset class, as well as evaluation problems. The corresponding possible
solutions include holding cash, paying attention to non conventional, non systematic
trend, and educating stakeholders to have the right expectations and to know
your expectations. In the final statement, Mr. Zhou Yuan stressed that today’s
discussion of asset allocation focus on institutional investors. We need to
solve ordering and compatibility problems. At the same time, under different
market conditions, the investment portfolio performance will not be the same.
Mr. Zhou claimed that from the beginning of the 70's, asset allocation entered
into the so-called “modernism era”; after effective marginal proposed, some
institutions began to enter the post-modernism era. In any case, asset
allocation is a must-have function; just don't have unrealistic expectation on
its value generating.
The second
International Financial Forum has invited many distinguished experts and scholars
in the field of finance, as well as the responsible persons in policy agencies
and investment institutions. The in-depth discussion and frank exchanges among participants
laid good foundation for further dialogue and cooperation, which is exactly the
purpose for NCFR to initiate and host the forum. Sponsored
by Zhongzhi Group, the National Center for Financial Research is a new research
institute and high-end think tank As an open research platform with global
perspectives, the Center aims to apply world-class academic research to
financial practices in China, to achieve its goals of addressing major
financial issues facing the country and society, building a solid analytical
foundation for financial reform, offering policy analysis for financial
policy-making and regulation, and supplying creative ideas and technology for
the construction and development of the Chinese financial market.